The SEO ROI formula
ROI = (organic revenue − SEO cost) ÷ SEO cost × 100, where organic revenue = visits × conversion rate × value per conversion. For example, 1,000 extra visits a month at a 2% conversion rate and $300 per conversion is $6,000 a month. At $1,500 a month in SEO costs, that's a 300% return once rankings are reached.
How the forecast works
- Visits per keyword = monthly search volume × CTR at your target position.
- Ramp: traffic grows in a straight line until the month you expect to reach those positions, then stays flat.
- Revenue = visits × conversion rate × value per conversion, each month.
- Payback is the first month cumulative revenue covers cumulative cost.
It doesn't model compounding (pages that rank for hundreds of related queries), seasonality or brand lift, so real results can beat it. It also assumes you reach the positions you entered, so it can fall short of them too.
Make the forecast realistic
Use your own CTR
Open Search Console → Performance, show Average CTR and Average position, and look at queries at positions 1, 3, 5 and 10. Your numbers already include your niche's ads and AI Overviews. The CTR calculator helps with the arithmetic.
Start with keywords you already rank for
Keywords at positions 4–15 move faster and more predictably than new ones. See striking distance keywords and how to find keywords you already rank for.
Value leads honestly
For lead generation, value per conversion = average deal value × lead-to-customer rate. A $5,000 deal with a 10% close rate is worth $500 per lead.
Run three scenarios
Conservative (lower positions, longer ramp), expected, and optimistic. If only the optimistic case pays back, rethink the keyword list or the budget.